A Markov Chain Model for Determining Language Extinction

Abstract

An absorbing Markov chain model used to capture the dynamics of language extinction is presented in this article. The state space consists of language ability and language inability. Maximum likelihood estimates of the intergenerational transmission probabilities were obtained over three generations and the evolution of the absorbing Markov chain was studied at generational epochs. An empirical study of some of Nigeria’s indigenous languages was undertaken and it was shown that some of these languages are on a steep downward keel that may result in extinction in the absence of external intervention. Most of the languages surveyed also exhibited low levels of indigenous language literacy. Analysis of the ensuing absorbing Markov chains showed declining intergenerational transmission, with possible absorption of the chain within a few generations, in some cases.